Will real estate prices in Dubai decrease?

What are the factors that generally affect real estate prices?

We can divide the factors affecting real estate prices into two categories: factors related to the property itself, and factors related to the economic climate surrounding the property.

First: Factors related to the property itself:

• Property location and proximity to vital centers: The location of the property is one of the most important factors influencing its price due to its direct impact on the property's distance from roads, transportation, and key projects such as hospitals, schools, malls, shopping and entertainment centers, and more.
• Building specifications: Including area, building age, property layout, number of rooms, bathrooms, living rooms, modernity of design, quality of finishes, as well as whether the property enjoys beautiful or panoramic views, whether it is within a modern residential complex with integrated services or independent, and whether it has smart home features, among other specifications.
• Property valuation report, also known in some Gulf countries as the (inspector's report), plays a role in determining the home's price, listing its features, and whether it meets the standards for disaster-resistant buildings such as earthquakes, as well as stating necessary repairs and missing legal procedures.

Second: Factors related to the economic environment:

• Increase and decrease in supply and demand: Like any other commodity, real estate prices are affected by the law of supply and demand, with prices dropping when supply is abundant and rising when it is scarce.
• Economic indicators: The strength of a country's economy has a significant impact on its real estate markets, as consumers' ability to support housing prices largely depends on factors such as GDP, unemployment, income growth, low inflation, and others. The economic crisis that hit global markets in 2008 had a clear impact on the stagnation of real estate prices.

There are also important economic factors that affect real estate prices in a country, such as: - The level of unemployment (which determines whether homeowners will be forced to sell at lower prices).

As well as - the extent to which families can withstand fluctuations in mortgage interest rates or fixed rates that may be set at much higher levels.

Has the demand for Dubai real estate declined recently?

A report by one of the leading companies in sustainable real estate development in the United Arab Emirates revealed a significant increase in off-plan real estate sales transactions during April 2023, with a 42.5% year-on-year increase, confirming the continued growth of Dubai real estate, which is witnessing strong demand from foreign investors seeking to benefit from the advantages of safe investment in various sectors, especially real estate, as well as the economic stability of the UAE compared to other countries.

The United Arab Emirates has also witnessed an exceptional increase in demand for apartments, due to factors such as low property taxes and rental income taxes, which increases the likelihood of higher investment returns compared to many other countries.

As evidence of the continued rise in real estate prices in Dubai, a Reuters survey conducted from May 11 to 26, 2022, which included 13 real estate market analysts, recorded an average increase of 7.5% in Dubai home prices in 2022, unchanged from the previous survey conducted two months earlier. Data from the Dubai Land Department showed that the real estate sector in the emirate achieved its best quarterly performance in over 10 years, with first-quarter 2022 sales transactions reaching their highest levels since 2010.

Will real estate prices in Dubai decrease?

It is natural for real estate prices in Dubai to vary according to several factors we mentioned, such as location, proximity to the city center, area, luxury of finishes, the interaction of supply and demand, and other factors. To answer the possibility of declining real estate prices in Dubai, it is necessary to follow the opinions of real estate analysts in this regard. A Reuters survey of analysts' opinions in mid-2022 indicated that Dubai home prices are expected to rise steadily over the next two years, driven by demand from foreign investors, especially with Dubai's economic recovery fueled by higher energy prices and a rebound in trade and tourism.

According to the Head of Middle East Research at Knight Frank, market sentiment in Dubai's real estate sector has improved significantly with the easing of the COVID-19 pandemic, "alongside the successful hosting of Expo and the reopening of travel corridors and other factors supporting market recovery," which is expected to lead to continued increase in real estate prices in Dubai.

With Dubai's real estate development companies recently focusing on building apartments that meet all modern standards, green projects that align with this agenda are topping the demand list in recent years. This trend is expected to remain stable in the near future with the launch of initiatives such as the Dubai Urban Plan 2040 and the strategic initiative to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, which require immediate changes to ensure future prosperity. All this may strengthen expectations of continued increase in real estate prices in Dubai, especially as this coincides with the announcement of 2023 as the Year of Sustainability in the UAE and the upcoming COP 28 conference. This trend is expected to continue as the UAE tops the list of countries attracting talent, helping to achieve Dubai's 2040 goal of doubling the UAE's population to about six million over the next 17 years, highlighting the importance of providing sustainable residential infrastructure to accommodate this population.

In addition, Dubai continues to attract investors from around the world for residency and investment, especially in the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine war, as Dubai is considered a modern, dynamic investment environment with its strategic location, strong infrastructure, and favorable business environment, which suggests that prices will continue to rise in the near term.

Dubai Real Estate Market Forecast 2026

According to reports issued by leading real estate development and marketing companies in Dubai, the real estate market in Dubai during 2026 will continue to consolidate its position as one of the world's strongest real estate markets in terms of transaction value and investment demand, benefiting from economic stability and investment-friendly policies.

The Dubai real estate market recorded exceptional performance in 2024 and 2025, with more than 180,000 real estate transactions annually and a total value exceeding 500 billion UAE dirhams, reflecting continued strong momentum across various sectors, especially villas and luxury properties.

In statements by executives of major real estate companies, it was noted that Dubai continues to develop its investment environment to foster real estate innovation by utilizing technology and offering flexible real estate products that meet the aspirations of international investors. They confirmed that Dubai's real estate market has become more mature and attractive, especially with the increasing interest from investors and high-net-worth individuals from around the world.

They added that investors' decisions in the Dubai real estate market are now based on a long-term investment vision that takes into account future growth opportunities, expected capital returns, and legislative stability. These decisions are often made after specialized studies and consultations with global research institutions regarding the future of real estate prices in Dubai.

How can I find the best real estate prices and opportunities in Dubai?

According to real estate experts in the UAE, the Dubai real estate market continues to stand out from the recession affecting many major markets worldwide, with Dubai real estate remaining a bright spot, regularly recording remarkable sales, while the global real estate sector often experiences slowdowns and contractions.

To find exceptional opportunities in Dubai real estate, we recommend contacting Imtilak Global, which seeks to seize the best real estate investment opportunities and present them to its clients wishing to invest in the real estate market by directing its clients to the best available options at the best possible prices that meet their desires and ambitions.

To ensure the quality of services provided to its clients, Imtilak Global offers free real estate tours to its clients so they can inspect these projects and properties on the ground.

Imtilak Global services for those wishing to buy property in Dubai

After reading the above about the prosperity of the Dubai real estate market, any investor wishing to have a successful experience by buying property in Dubai can benefit from the services of Imtilak Global for real estate investors in Dubai. Here are the following services provided by Imtilak Real Estate:

• Real estate consultancy services
• Free real estate tours
• Providing investment opportunities
• Buying and selling new properties
• After-sales services, either by renting out the property or reselling it with good profit margins.

Edited by: Imtilak Global Real Estate©

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